Wednesday, November 19, 2008

Markets likely to rebound

The Urban Land Institute recently asked 700 real estate professionals to name the best (and worst) places to invest in commercial real estate in the coming year. Those surveyed included private developers, Realtors and Real Estate Investment Trust executives. Their answers also apply to the residential market, since the single-family-home sector typically follows the economy.

The best cities in which to invest are those that:
- Are considered gateways to international investment
- Have vital down-towns where people can get around without cars
- Don't have an oversupply of condos or office space

These traits landed Seattle the No. 1 spot on the list. No city scored above a 6.15 on a scale of one to nine (one being an abysmal place to invest and nine being excellent). Seattle is "a diversified market, has a good base of business and is becoming a 24-hour city," says Stephen Blank, senior resident fellow, finance, of the Urban Land Institute. "It's going to be in a good position to come back."

Although the city is suffering from the loss of Washington Mutual and the downsizing of Starbucks, Boeing and Microsoft are still strong companies. Apartment vacancies are low and there aren't too many new buildings going up, meaning the market won't be oversupplied. The same is true in the retail space.

San Francisco comes in second with a 6.12. They have learned from the tech crash of 2001 not to overbuild. There is a reasonable supply of office and apartment space, which should limit vacancies. San Francisco's port is also expected to help the city during the downturn as Americans continue to rely on Asian imports.

Washington, D.C., New York and Los Angeles round out the top five.

New Orleans also lands near the bottom with a score of 3.33. The city has been losing businesses to Houston, Dallas and Atlanta since Hurricane Katrina hit in 2005.

The other cities at the bottom of the list — Columbus, Ohio, Milwaukee, Wis., and Cleveland, Ohio suffer from dying industries and lack of tourist appeal.

While Columbus has the potential to become a major shipping hub for goods traveling cross-country, that revitalization seems to be waiting for a stronger economy and a government focused on improving the roads.

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